Investigating the influences of climate change on drought in a small data-scarce river catchment

Abstract This study focuses on the influences of climate change drought characteristics in small, data-scarce Ndembera River catchment Tanzania, using Climatic Research Unit (CRU) datasets and six regional models (RCMs) CORDEX-Africa framework. The RCM simulations were validated against CRU data, their optimistic (RCP 2.6) worst-case 8.5) scenarios used estimating ensemble random forest regression. to compute standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices, which characterized for near-future, mid-future, far-future. Finally, patterns trends changes temperature compared those characteristics. findings revealed substantial uncertainty RCMs, although ensembles fairly reproduced historical catchment. Under scenario, a slight decrease small increase maximum are projected. Consequently, intensity is projected rise just slightly but remain moderate throughout this century. These expected be more pronounced during mid-future than pronounced, especially end sorts insights vital enhancing adaptations catchments.